Whatever the pundits say, Trump seems to have more of the “excitement” factor going for him. People compare the US presidential election to Brexit and there are many similarities. Brexit people seemed excited and religious in their devotion, while Bremain supporters seemed either worried about change or terrified of their fellow citizens. These vibes are similar to the vibes I get from Trump supporters and Hillary supporters. Hillary supporters, like Bremain supporters, say “Look- we shouldn’t randomly mess with the status quo, it’s dangerous. Let’s be smart, let’s be reasonable.” Trump supporters, like Brexit supporters, say “Vote for this! It’ll change everything and make everything better!!” And that second message is just so much more appealing.

But although it is, of course, possible for Trump to win, I am still predicting a Hillary landslide, larger even than Obama’s victory over Romney in 2012. And my reason for this prediction is simple- demographics.  Britain is 87% white. The United States is 63% non-Hispanic whites. That means 37% of potential American voters- almost three times as many as Britain’s 13%- are minorities. And when you run a campaign that focuses on stronger borders, national pride, and “trying to make things great again, like the way they were before you showed up/ got legal rights,” you are going to estrange some of those people.

In 2012, Romney only won 27% of the Hispanic vote. Trump is currently polling at 22% among that demographic (higher than I, at least, was expecting). Romney received 59% of the white vote, and would have needed 62% of the white vote to have been elected president. Trump will most likely need even more, given that he has distanced himself from minorities through his rhetoric even more than the typical GOP candidate. The most white votes in history were won by Reagan’s landslide re-election in 1984 with 66% of the white vote. With the current demographic makeup of this country, Trump would need to get something very close to that number in order to be elected. And because I find that to be extremely unlikely (but not impossible), I’m predicting a strong victory for Hillary in 2016.

 

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